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Summer travel: Another active Hurricane season predicted by the NOAA

By Brian Miller

SHELL BEACH, LA - AUGUST 22: A memorial cross for the victims of Hurricane Katrina stands in the water near the bank of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet on August 22, 2019 in Shell Beach, Louisiana. The Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a stretch of water dug by the Army Corps of Engineers for commercial purposes in the 1960s, is now closed to maritime shipping due to extensive saltwater intrusion, erosion, and degradation of the surrounding wetlands. According to researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Louisiana's combination of rising waters and sinking land give it one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the planet. Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost over 2,000 square miles of land and wetlands, an area roughly the size of Delaware. In the past 30 years, as subsidence continues and the effects of climate change increase, Louisiana has been losing its costal landscape at the rate of almost a football fields worth of land every hour. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
SHELL BEACH, LA - AUGUST 22: A memorial cross for the victims of Hurricane Katrina stands in the water near the bank of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet on August 22, 2019 in Shell Beach, Louisiana. The Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a stretch of water dug by the Army Corps of Engineers for commercial purposes in the 1960s, is now closed to maritime shipping due to extensive saltwater intrusion, erosion, and degradation of the surrounding wetlands. According to researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Louisiana's combination of rising waters and sinking land give it one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the planet. Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost over 2,000 square miles of land and wetlands, an area roughly the size of Delaware. In the past 30 years, as subsidence continues and the effects of climate change increase, Louisiana has been losing its costal landscape at the rate of almost a football fields worth of land every hour. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /
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The NOAA has released their 2021 hurricane predictions and summer travel into early fall could see another active Atlantic season for the U.S.

Summer will officially arrive in June and in late September but the hurricane season begins on June 1st ending in mid-November. Of course, that doesn’t mean a hurricane can’t develop before or after those dates. Still, peak season is around the corner, and as such, travel plans may need to be adjusted quickly.

It is important to keep the NHC.noaa.gov site handy. It is updated throughout the season and offers both U.S. models as well as U.K. models. Knowing what might be in store when a system develops is important because the sooner you get an idea of where one may be headed, you can adjust your plans.

This has been the case for our family several years in a row. Seeing projections may not always play out but if we are planning a trip to Florida and notice a system that could impact the area, we have ample to change our plans and head west or north instead.

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Last year’s season was pretty active but it doesn’t appear that this one will slow down. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 60% chance of an above-average season, a 30% chance of normal season, and only a 10% chance of below that.

The announcement on the NOAA website says they are not predicting the same level as 2020, in fact, they predict 13 to 20 named storms with 3-5 potential major hurricanes this year. In 2020, 20 named systems developed in the Atlantic. Four were CAT-5 systems.

This year they are predicting a lot less but still more than normal. Throughout the season we will keep you updated as storms develop with travel options should you need to change your plans.

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